February 29, 2024
· Nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations in January, soaring 353,000 compared to consensus of just 185,000[i]
· For the first time in over a year, we also an upward revision to the prior month, and it was a massive one – December’s report was revised with an additional 117,000 jobs, taking the total to 333,000[ii]
· In a bit of bad news for the Federal Reserve and their inflation battle, average hourly earnings rose 0.6% month-over-month, which was double the expected gain[iii]
· Despite these bright spots in the Payrolls Survey, the more-encompassing Household Survey was not as constructive
· This report, which measures labor force status, showed a drop in employment of -31,000, and this is following a drop of -270,000 in December[iv]
· Full-time workers fell for the second consecutive month, this time only by -63,000 after December’s massive -1,531,000 loss[v]
· Like they did in December, the number of those working part-time for economic reasons rose more than 210,000, now at 4,422,000 total[vi]
· While the headline U-3 unemployment rate was unchanged again at 3.7%[vii], the broader U-6, which includes a wider swath of the labor force, rose to 7.2% – tied for the highest level since December 2021[viii]
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[i] www.cnbc.com, “U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected,” February 2, 2024
[ii] www.cnbc.com, “U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected,” February 2, 2024
[iii] www.cnbc.com, “U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected,” February 2, 2024
[iv] www.bls.gov, “The Employment Situation- January 2024,” February 2, 2024
[v] www.bls.gov, “The Employment Situation- January 2024,” February 2, 2024
[vi] www.bls.gov, “The Employment Situation- January 2024,” February 2, 2024
[vii] www.bls.gov, “The Employment Situation- January 2024,” February 2, 2024
[viii] www.fred.stlouisfed.org, “Total Unemployed, Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons, as a Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force (U-6),” February 2, 2024